-As a lad, George Gero found out first-hand that gold really is an asset that retains value in the worst of times. It enabled his family to escape the Nazis during World War II.
The metal has been an important part of his life since, as he spent a career trading spreads – such as one gold futures contract versus another, or gold versus silver and platinum – looking to capture small gains but with a lower-risk set-up than outright futures positions.
Gero, currently vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures in New York, recalls he was maybe 8 years old and living in Hungary near the end of World War II. Gero was Jewish and had been born in England, thus was considered an enemy of the state by Germany’s Hitler government. His mother had already been a German prisoner once, before his father—working as a banker in Portugal--paid a ransom for her release. His mother was later at risk of being sent to a Nazi prison camp again, along with Gero and his sister, when his father made arrangements for their escape.
The plan worked, thanks to gold. The family bribed German guards into letting them cross the border out of Hungary, using some Swiss gold coins and gold wafers. They also had enough gold to pay for a car and driver to take them to Switzerland, before they later reached Portugal.
Gold is often thought of as a store of value in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, and German-occupied Europe was certainly in a crisis during the latter stages of World War II. “That was really the only medium of exchange that people trusted back then,” Gero said.
Thus, he said, “gold kind of saved my life. We were able to get out of Hungary because of gold.”
Gero later became a U.S. citizen and figures it was “more than a coincidence” he eventually became a precious-metals trader. “When I started work on Wall Street, I always had an interest,” he said. He became a member of the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1966 and was a platinum trader. Gero later joined COMEX and traded the first gold contract when it was launched in December 1974, after the U.S. government made it legal for citizens to own gold.
He is immediate past president of the International Precious Metals Institute and a member of the Comex board of directors. He wrote a book called “Precious Metals” in 1984.
Gero Specializes In Trading Spreads, Gold Versus Silver And Platinum
Gero’s forte is trading spreads. He might buy gold futures in one contract month and immediately sell in another, trying to benefit from the price differential between the two. For instance, suppose a trader bought December gold and sold the February at a price that was $2 higher. He would hope for the spread to either remain the same or for December gold to rise more than the February.
Gero would also take positions on whether gold would outperform or underperform platinum or silver. To profit from a bet that gold would increase by the most, a trader would buy gold and sell platinum or silver in equal dollar amounts.
By holding offsetting positions in two contracts, a trader limits risk since he does not have to rely only on guessing which way the broad market will go. He simply posts a profit if he correctly bets which will do better than the other – whether both are rising or falling.
“You don’t get very rich doing that,” Gero said. “That’s not what hedge funds like to do. But…you can consistently eke out returns without having undue risk.”
Gero relies upon a combination of fundamental factors--such as news and supply/demand issues--and technical-chart indicators when making his trading decisions.
To trade precious metals, he monitors the world’s major currencies, along with trends in interest rates, political events and economic data for both the U.S. and Europe. He also closely monitors open interest (the number of open positions) in the metals, volume, moving averages, and whether a market is posting a series of higher or lower closes.
If Gero sees volatile swings in prices, but no meaningful change in open positions, he takes this a sign that the same people are exiting and entering positions. But say he sees the number of open positions rising as prices climb, then he knows there are new buyers adding to a market’s momentum, which he considers bullish. Conversely, declining prices at a time of rising open interest would leave him bearish, since it indicates fresh selling. Meanwhile, a move either way on declining open interest means traders are simply exiting prior transactions rather than making new ones.
“And I look at charts points to try and think about where institutions would enter the market either on the buy side or the sell side,” he said.
Gero shared what he considered a mistake early in his career, to help others avoid doing the same. When news reports emerged that Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat had been assassinated in October 1981, gold prices started rising. The metal is often bought as a safety play at a time of geo-political tensions. However, Egyptian authorities soon denied initial reports of the assassination, Gero recalled.
“I sold gold,” Gero said. “Then of course we found out that there was an assassination, and I was forced to buy back the next day (to offset a position) at a much higher price, taking a big loss.”
The lesson: be careful about rushing into a trade on a “knee-jerk” reaction to a headline, especially on stories from a single source.
“Wait until you can analyze the story,” Gero said. “Each situation is kind of different.”
Otherwise, Gero’s advice for budding traders is to practice their trading strategies on charts ahead of time to make sure they appear successful when none of their money is actually on the line. He also advocated reading as many financial-news publications as possible, particularly anything related to a commodity in which somebody wants to take a position.
“Before you trade, study the markets and make a bunch of paper trades without committing money,” Gero said. “See if you can consistently get the right direction in your trades.”
Friday, September 24, 2010
Moore Research Center Seeks Historical Tendencies For Gold, Other Markets
(Kitco News) - Veteran futures traders might be aware that a seasonally strong period for gold tends to occur during September. They can check this through the work of a research organization that quantifies these trends as well as identify some historical tendencies for corrections.
For instance, data compiled by Moore Research Center, Inc., shows that Comex December gold futures closed higher around Oct. 1 than Sept. 10 in 13 of the last 15 years, with an average gain of around $20 an ounce.
However, the data also show that December gold then closed lower around Nov. 2 than Oct. 8 in 12 of the last 15 years, with an average decline of around $11.70 an ounce.
But then gold historically tends to pick up again. The data shows that February gold futures closed higher around Nov. 28 than Oct. 26 in 12 of the last 15 years by an average of $20 an ounce. Then February gold futures, from around Dec. 20 to 27, rose in 13 of the last 15 years by an average of $6.50 an ounce.
The firm, based near Eugene, Ore., does a highly detailed, computerized analysis of historical trends in all of the major commodities markets. The center looks at the price for each day of the year, such as Jan. 2, and then determines how often in the last 15 years the market has risen or fallen over the next seven days, then the next eight days, and so on up to three months. Then it does the same thing starting from Jan. 3, Jan. 4, and so on.
The system literally looks at thousands of possibilities for both outright futures contracts and spreads. Moore Research Center then highlights the time periods when there have been meaningful moves at least 80% of the time.
Veteran traders, whether metals or grains, are typically aware of the seasonal tendencies intuitively, said Jerry Toepke, editor of publications for the Moore Research Center. “All we’re doing is quantifying them.”
The firm’s clients include hedge funds, commercial hedgers, brokers, large speculators and novice investors, the latter who may benefit the most if they’re not already aware of seasonal patterns. The Center released an 86-page “2010 Historical Metals” report this week.
Traders want to know historical tendencies, particularly in markets such as grains and livestock that have natural patterns tied to harvests, said Sterling Smith, commodity trading adviser and market analyst with Country Hedging. “Moore Research, as far as seasonal things, is far and away the No. 1 place. Their data and information is quite, quite solid.”
Dennis Gartman, publisher of the widely followed Gartman Letter, concurred. “They are excellent,” he said.
Still, Smith said he would not rely solely on seasonal data to make a trade recommendation. And that’s not the intent, Moore’s Toepke emphasized.
“One thing you have to remember about our work is that it’s statistical in nature,” he said. “We are taking the daily futures prices…and finding what the market has done, how often it has done it, and with what kind of intensity it has done it. It is in no way making a prediction."
The reports are not meant as trading recommendations, but instead as another tool that traders can add to their toolboxes, Toepke said. “It’s up to them to apply their own common sense, technical indicators, fundamental knowledge, trading expertise and so on,” Toepke said.
The Moore Research Center was founded by President Steve Moore, who initially got into the futures business in the 1970s through hedging in the wood-products industry. He later opened a computer-research facility for a major brokerage, before starting the Moore Research Center in July 1989.
Toepke said the gold market often experiences “summer doldrums” and languishes into August, before picking up again. Buying from jewelry manufacturers normally rises ahead of a number of gift-giving holidays and certain other periods around the world, he explained. This includes the Muslim Ramadan observance, the period after the Indian harvest as many farmers convert their agricultural earnings into gold and silver, along with a wedding season in India, Toepke said. Historically, the country has been the world’s largest consumer of gold. Later, there is the Indian Diwali festival, followed by Christmas in Western nations and the Chinese New Year in February.
“You pack all of those celebrations into (a several-month period) and that makes September one of the by-far biggest months of the year for gold,” Toepke said.
Silver Tends To Follow Gold In Autumn, Rally From October To February
Silver’s autumn tendency is similar to gold. In 13 of the last 15 years, December silver futures have closed higher around Sept. 23 than Sept. 13. But in 12 of the last 15 years, December silver closed lower around Oct. 18 than Oct. 8.
Silver tends to make a seasonal low anywhere from August to October. “Then starting in November, silver has exhibited a strong tendency to rise right into February,” Toepke said.
The May silver futures contract closed higher around Feb. 21 than Oct. 28 in 14 of the last 15 years, Toepke reported. The average gain was $1.12 an ounce.
Platinum Has Seasonal Tendency To Rise Over Winter
Platinum has often made a seasonal bottom in October, before showing a tendency to rise over the winter, Toepke said. The April platinum contract has finished higher around March 1 than Nov. 1 in 14 of the last 15 years by an average of $132 an ounce. Furthermore, April platinum closed higher around Feb. 28 than Dec. 20 in each of the last 15 years, by an average of around $107 an ounce.
Meanwhile, Toepke said, platinum has tended to outperform gold from autumn into early spring. A spread trade held from around Oct. 27 to Feb. 15, in which somebody would buy. April platinum but sell April gold in equal ounce amounts, would have been profitable in each of the last 15 years. The average profit would have been $80 an ounce.
Copper Tends To Hit Low In December, Rally In New Year
Copper has a historically weak time period ahead, followed by a seasonally strong period, Toepke said.
“For the May and July copper contracts, the seasonal pattern shows over the last 15 years, they have most consistently made a seasonal low literally in the last week of December,” Toepke said.
Then copper rises, presumably as the construction sector builds inventories ahead of the summer-building season, he said.
The May copper contract closed higher around March 7, compared to Dec. 30, in 13 of the past 15 years. The average gain was nearly 15 cents a pound.
For instance, data compiled by Moore Research Center, Inc., shows that Comex December gold futures closed higher around Oct. 1 than Sept. 10 in 13 of the last 15 years, with an average gain of around $20 an ounce.
However, the data also show that December gold then closed lower around Nov. 2 than Oct. 8 in 12 of the last 15 years, with an average decline of around $11.70 an ounce.
But then gold historically tends to pick up again. The data shows that February gold futures closed higher around Nov. 28 than Oct. 26 in 12 of the last 15 years by an average of $20 an ounce. Then February gold futures, from around Dec. 20 to 27, rose in 13 of the last 15 years by an average of $6.50 an ounce.
The firm, based near Eugene, Ore., does a highly detailed, computerized analysis of historical trends in all of the major commodities markets. The center looks at the price for each day of the year, such as Jan. 2, and then determines how often in the last 15 years the market has risen or fallen over the next seven days, then the next eight days, and so on up to three months. Then it does the same thing starting from Jan. 3, Jan. 4, and so on.
The system literally looks at thousands of possibilities for both outright futures contracts and spreads. Moore Research Center then highlights the time periods when there have been meaningful moves at least 80% of the time.
Veteran traders, whether metals or grains, are typically aware of the seasonal tendencies intuitively, said Jerry Toepke, editor of publications for the Moore Research Center. “All we’re doing is quantifying them.”
The firm’s clients include hedge funds, commercial hedgers, brokers, large speculators and novice investors, the latter who may benefit the most if they’re not already aware of seasonal patterns. The Center released an 86-page “2010 Historical Metals” report this week.
Traders want to know historical tendencies, particularly in markets such as grains and livestock that have natural patterns tied to harvests, said Sterling Smith, commodity trading adviser and market analyst with Country Hedging. “Moore Research, as far as seasonal things, is far and away the No. 1 place. Their data and information is quite, quite solid.”
Dennis Gartman, publisher of the widely followed Gartman Letter, concurred. “They are excellent,” he said.
Still, Smith said he would not rely solely on seasonal data to make a trade recommendation. And that’s not the intent, Moore’s Toepke emphasized.
“One thing you have to remember about our work is that it’s statistical in nature,” he said. “We are taking the daily futures prices…and finding what the market has done, how often it has done it, and with what kind of intensity it has done it. It is in no way making a prediction."
The reports are not meant as trading recommendations, but instead as another tool that traders can add to their toolboxes, Toepke said. “It’s up to them to apply their own common sense, technical indicators, fundamental knowledge, trading expertise and so on,” Toepke said.
The Moore Research Center was founded by President Steve Moore, who initially got into the futures business in the 1970s through hedging in the wood-products industry. He later opened a computer-research facility for a major brokerage, before starting the Moore Research Center in July 1989.
Toepke said the gold market often experiences “summer doldrums” and languishes into August, before picking up again. Buying from jewelry manufacturers normally rises ahead of a number of gift-giving holidays and certain other periods around the world, he explained. This includes the Muslim Ramadan observance, the period after the Indian harvest as many farmers convert their agricultural earnings into gold and silver, along with a wedding season in India, Toepke said. Historically, the country has been the world’s largest consumer of gold. Later, there is the Indian Diwali festival, followed by Christmas in Western nations and the Chinese New Year in February.
“You pack all of those celebrations into (a several-month period) and that makes September one of the by-far biggest months of the year for gold,” Toepke said.
Silver Tends To Follow Gold In Autumn, Rally From October To February
Silver’s autumn tendency is similar to gold. In 13 of the last 15 years, December silver futures have closed higher around Sept. 23 than Sept. 13. But in 12 of the last 15 years, December silver closed lower around Oct. 18 than Oct. 8.
Silver tends to make a seasonal low anywhere from August to October. “Then starting in November, silver has exhibited a strong tendency to rise right into February,” Toepke said.
The May silver futures contract closed higher around Feb. 21 than Oct. 28 in 14 of the last 15 years, Toepke reported. The average gain was $1.12 an ounce.
Platinum Has Seasonal Tendency To Rise Over Winter
Platinum has often made a seasonal bottom in October, before showing a tendency to rise over the winter, Toepke said. The April platinum contract has finished higher around March 1 than Nov. 1 in 14 of the last 15 years by an average of $132 an ounce. Furthermore, April platinum closed higher around Feb. 28 than Dec. 20 in each of the last 15 years, by an average of around $107 an ounce.
Meanwhile, Toepke said, platinum has tended to outperform gold from autumn into early spring. A spread trade held from around Oct. 27 to Feb. 15, in which somebody would buy. April platinum but sell April gold in equal ounce amounts, would have been profitable in each of the last 15 years. The average profit would have been $80 an ounce.
Copper Tends To Hit Low In December, Rally In New Year
Copper has a historically weak time period ahead, followed by a seasonally strong period, Toepke said.
“For the May and July copper contracts, the seasonal pattern shows over the last 15 years, they have most consistently made a seasonal low literally in the last week of December,” Toepke said.
Then copper rises, presumably as the construction sector builds inventories ahead of the summer-building season, he said.
The May copper contract closed higher around March 7, compared to Dec. 30, in 13 of the past 15 years. The average gain was nearly 15 cents a pound.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
15 Ways to Earn a Reputation as an Expert in Your Field
I had the opportunity to address 55 women business owners and a few men at yesterday’s Women in Business Forum at Meydenbauer Center on the topic of how to become an expert in your field through the power of free publicity. If you weren’t able to attend, here are the 15 ways for you to consider:
1. First and foremost, do great work for your clients so they are happy to go to the mountaintops with their bugles to sing your praises. If you are truly doing a great job for your clients, you have earned the right to ask for testimonials and use them to celebrate your expertise.
2. Be clear about your commitment to serve others first so your own success can grow. When you share general tips and information that ease aches and pains others are experiencing in their businesses, you will invite others to engage you for a fee for the specifics to solve those problems.
3. Craft a fabulous bio that proves and declares your expertise in a winning, memorable way. Leave the blah, blah, blah boring bio behind and lead with a story that is memorable, likable, and worthy of respect. You and your expertise will be well served.
4. Write regularly for the local, trade, or national business media.
5. Use those articles to ask for and earn an ongoing column in a local business journal.
6. Contribute commentary, tips, and resources to social networks, online forums, blogs, radio shows, and other media.
7. Speak at professional events and serve on panels through which your expertise can add value.
8. Launch and sustain a useful electronic newsletter, and invite new subscribers to benefit from what you offer by offering valuable resources, special reports, and other tools to support their success.
9. Launch and maintain a useful blog.
10. Maintain a quality website that celebrates your expertise.
11. Host teleseminars, webinars, and workshops to share your expertise with others and expand your sphere of influence. Tell. Don’t sell.
12. Merchandise your contributions and perspectives to the media via your online pressroom to make it easy for editors and writers to connect with you 24/7.
13. Write special reports, e-books, or other tools to support others’ success through the power of your expertise.
14. Win awards that celebrate your winning ways and reflect favorably upon your reputation.
15. Explore video as an avenue to share your expertise with the world. Now that YouTube is such a powerful force, along with dozens of other online video sites, the opportunities to share your expertise and message in a way that will engage others are limitless.
I don’t just offer this advice. I apply each and every tip to support my own reputation as an expert, and it really does work. I even have my own Nancy Juetten channel on YouTube.com. Check it out!
By the way, I got most of the presentation on my digital recorder, and I’ll be offering the audio file to Media-Savvy-to-Go ezine subscribers in the next issue. If you are not yet a subscriber, please opt-in. In return, you’ll receive 12 sassy newspaper columns to empower your DIY publicity success. Best of all, you’ll never miss out on fun, high value offers I extend from time to time to support your success.
1. First and foremost, do great work for your clients so they are happy to go to the mountaintops with their bugles to sing your praises. If you are truly doing a great job for your clients, you have earned the right to ask for testimonials and use them to celebrate your expertise.
2. Be clear about your commitment to serve others first so your own success can grow. When you share general tips and information that ease aches and pains others are experiencing in their businesses, you will invite others to engage you for a fee for the specifics to solve those problems.
3. Craft a fabulous bio that proves and declares your expertise in a winning, memorable way. Leave the blah, blah, blah boring bio behind and lead with a story that is memorable, likable, and worthy of respect. You and your expertise will be well served.
4. Write regularly for the local, trade, or national business media.
5. Use those articles to ask for and earn an ongoing column in a local business journal.
6. Contribute commentary, tips, and resources to social networks, online forums, blogs, radio shows, and other media.
7. Speak at professional events and serve on panels through which your expertise can add value.
8. Launch and sustain a useful electronic newsletter, and invite new subscribers to benefit from what you offer by offering valuable resources, special reports, and other tools to support their success.
9. Launch and maintain a useful blog.
10. Maintain a quality website that celebrates your expertise.
11. Host teleseminars, webinars, and workshops to share your expertise with others and expand your sphere of influence. Tell. Don’t sell.
12. Merchandise your contributions and perspectives to the media via your online pressroom to make it easy for editors and writers to connect with you 24/7.
13. Write special reports, e-books, or other tools to support others’ success through the power of your expertise.
14. Win awards that celebrate your winning ways and reflect favorably upon your reputation.
15. Explore video as an avenue to share your expertise with the world. Now that YouTube is such a powerful force, along with dozens of other online video sites, the opportunities to share your expertise and message in a way that will engage others are limitless.
I don’t just offer this advice. I apply each and every tip to support my own reputation as an expert, and it really does work. I even have my own Nancy Juetten channel on YouTube.com. Check it out!
By the way, I got most of the presentation on my digital recorder, and I’ll be offering the audio file to Media-Savvy-to-Go ezine subscribers in the next issue. If you are not yet a subscriber, please opt-in. In return, you’ll receive 12 sassy newspaper columns to empower your DIY publicity success. Best of all, you’ll never miss out on fun, high value offers I extend from time to time to support your success.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
The Alchemist
“Why do we have to listen to our hearts?” the boy asked, when they had made camp that day.
“Because, wherever your heart is, that is where you’ll find your treasure.”
“But my heart is agitated,” the boy said. “It has its dreams, it gets emotional, and it’s become passionate over a woman of the desert. It asks things of me, and it keeps me from sleeping many nights, when I’m thinking about her.”
“Well, that’s good. Your heart is alive. Keep listening to what it has to say.”
“My heart is a traitor,” the boy said to the alchemist, when they had paused to rest the horses. “It doesn’t want me to go on.”
“That makes sense. Naturally it’s afraid that, in pursuing your dream, you might lose everything you’ve won.”
“Well, then, why should I listen to my heart?”
“Because you will never again be able to keep it quiet. Even if you pretend not to have heard what it tells you, it will always be there inside you, repeating to you what you’re thinking about life and about the world.”
“You mean I should listen, even if it’s treasonous?”
“Treason is a blow that comes unexpectedly. If you know your heart well, it will never be able to do that to you. Because you’ll know its dreams and wishes, and will know how to deal with them.
“My heart is afraid that it will have to suffer,” the boy told the alchemist one night as they looked up at the moonless sky.
“Tell your heart that the fear of suffering is worse than the suffering itself. And that no heart has ever suffered when it goes in search of its dreams, because every second of the search is a second’s encounter with God and with eternity.”
“Every second of the search is an encounter with God,” the boy told his heart. “When I have been truly searching for my treasure, every day has been luminous, because I’ve known that every hour was a part of the dream that I would find it. When I have been truly searching for my treasure, I’ve discovered things along the way that I never would have seen had I not had the courage to try things that seemed impossible for a shepherd to achieve.”
So his heart was quiet for an entire afternoon. “Everyone on earth has a treasure that awaits him,” his heart said. “We, people’s hearts, seldom say much about those treasures, because people no longer want to go in search of them. We speak of them only to children. Later, we simply let life proceed, in its own direction, toward its own fate. But, unfortunately, very few follow the path laid out for them—the path to their destinies, and to happiness. Most people see the world as a threatening place, and, because they do, the world turns out indeed, to be threatening place.
“So, we, their hearts, speak more and more softly. We never stop speaking out, but we begin to hope that our words won’t be heard: we don’t want people to suffer because they don’t follow their hearts.”
“Because, wherever your heart is, that is where you’ll find your treasure.”
“But my heart is agitated,” the boy said. “It has its dreams, it gets emotional, and it’s become passionate over a woman of the desert. It asks things of me, and it keeps me from sleeping many nights, when I’m thinking about her.”
“Well, that’s good. Your heart is alive. Keep listening to what it has to say.”
“My heart is a traitor,” the boy said to the alchemist, when they had paused to rest the horses. “It doesn’t want me to go on.”
“That makes sense. Naturally it’s afraid that, in pursuing your dream, you might lose everything you’ve won.”
“Well, then, why should I listen to my heart?”
“Because you will never again be able to keep it quiet. Even if you pretend not to have heard what it tells you, it will always be there inside you, repeating to you what you’re thinking about life and about the world.”
“You mean I should listen, even if it’s treasonous?”
“Treason is a blow that comes unexpectedly. If you know your heart well, it will never be able to do that to you. Because you’ll know its dreams and wishes, and will know how to deal with them.
“My heart is afraid that it will have to suffer,” the boy told the alchemist one night as they looked up at the moonless sky.
“Tell your heart that the fear of suffering is worse than the suffering itself. And that no heart has ever suffered when it goes in search of its dreams, because every second of the search is a second’s encounter with God and with eternity.”
“Every second of the search is an encounter with God,” the boy told his heart. “When I have been truly searching for my treasure, every day has been luminous, because I’ve known that every hour was a part of the dream that I would find it. When I have been truly searching for my treasure, I’ve discovered things along the way that I never would have seen had I not had the courage to try things that seemed impossible for a shepherd to achieve.”
So his heart was quiet for an entire afternoon. “Everyone on earth has a treasure that awaits him,” his heart said. “We, people’s hearts, seldom say much about those treasures, because people no longer want to go in search of them. We speak of them only to children. Later, we simply let life proceed, in its own direction, toward its own fate. But, unfortunately, very few follow the path laid out for them—the path to their destinies, and to happiness. Most people see the world as a threatening place, and, because they do, the world turns out indeed, to be threatening place.
“So, we, their hearts, speak more and more softly. We never stop speaking out, but we begin to hope that our words won’t be heard: we don’t want people to suffer because they don’t follow their hearts.”
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
13 ways to get lucky
Here are 13 ways to get lucky
Always thought other people have all the luck? Well, this is because they understand the difference between luck and planning and know how to place themselves in the path of good fortune. And now, you too can bend the path of luck towards you.
Max Gunther has outlined13 techniques for discovering and taking advantage of life's good breaks in his book 'How to Get Lucky', which has recently been republished after its debut in 1986.
Gunther, who died in 1988, said that lucky people arrange their lives in characteristic patterns and tend to position themselves in the path of "onrushing luck", reports Stuff.co.nz.
Here are his 13 tips to turn your luck around:
1. Never confuse luck with planning:
When a desired outcome is brought about by luck, you must acknowledge that fact. If you confuse luck with planning, you will all but guarantee that your luck, in the long run, will be bad.
2. Find the fast flow:
Go where events flow fastest, surround yourself with a churning mass of people and things will happen. It doesn't matter if you are a quiet person; all you need to do is meet a lot of people and let them know who you are. Then they will direct opportunities your way.
3. Take calculated risks:
There are two ways to be an almost sure loser in life. One is to take risks that are out of proportion to the rewards being sought. The other is to take no risks at all. Lucky people, characteristically, avoid both extremes.
4. Know when to cut and run:
Always assume that a run of luck is going to be short, never try to ride a run to its peak. You will virtually always be right as the law of averages is heavily on your side.
5. Know how to select luck:
Is there some likelihood that the problems with your investment - whether it be time, money or love - will go away? Do you have some realistic hope of fixing them? If so, you should stay aboard. If not, you should get out and look for better luck elsewhere.
6. Take the zig zag path:
Despite what many people think the path to success is rarely a straight line. Lucky men and women, on the whole, are not straight-line strugglers. They not only allow themselves to be distracted, they invite distraction.
A plan should be used as a guide only and if something better comes along the plan should be discarded immediately without regret.
7. Supernatural belief can help:
Not because it makes you more lucky but because it helps you make impossible choices. Sometimes there is no rational choice to make, yet the worst reaction is to do nothing.
A supernatural belief can enable people to get into a potentially winning position simply by helping them make choices.
8. Be a bit pessimistic:
Lucky people, as a breed, tend to be pessimistic. Optimism means expecting the best, but good luck involves knowing how you will handle the worst.
9. Learn to keep your mouth shut:
Talk can tie you up and lock you in positions that seem right today but may be wrong tomorrow. Avoid unnecessary talk about your problems, plans and feelings. When there is no good reason to say something, say nothing.
10. Recognise a non-lesson:
There are experiences in life that seem to be lessons but aren't. Recognise when something was just bad luck and move on.
11. Accept the universe is unfair:
All of us, the good, the bad and the in-between, are all equally likely to realise our fondest dreams or contract cancer.
12. Be willing to be busy:
The more activities you have going the greater the likelihood that something good will happen.
13. Find a destiny partner:
This is someone who is someone who changes your luck over a long term. This person is not necessarily a romantic partner and is usually just found by blind luck but it can help if you are actively looking. (ANI)
Always thought other people have all the luck? Well, this is because they understand the difference between luck and planning and know how to place themselves in the path of good fortune. And now, you too can bend the path of luck towards you.
Max Gunther has outlined13 techniques for discovering and taking advantage of life's good breaks in his book 'How to Get Lucky', which has recently been republished after its debut in 1986.
Gunther, who died in 1988, said that lucky people arrange their lives in characteristic patterns and tend to position themselves in the path of "onrushing luck", reports Stuff.co.nz.
Here are his 13 tips to turn your luck around:
1. Never confuse luck with planning:
When a desired outcome is brought about by luck, you must acknowledge that fact. If you confuse luck with planning, you will all but guarantee that your luck, in the long run, will be bad.
2. Find the fast flow:
Go where events flow fastest, surround yourself with a churning mass of people and things will happen. It doesn't matter if you are a quiet person; all you need to do is meet a lot of people and let them know who you are. Then they will direct opportunities your way.
3. Take calculated risks:
There are two ways to be an almost sure loser in life. One is to take risks that are out of proportion to the rewards being sought. The other is to take no risks at all. Lucky people, characteristically, avoid both extremes.
4. Know when to cut and run:
Always assume that a run of luck is going to be short, never try to ride a run to its peak. You will virtually always be right as the law of averages is heavily on your side.
5. Know how to select luck:
Is there some likelihood that the problems with your investment - whether it be time, money or love - will go away? Do you have some realistic hope of fixing them? If so, you should stay aboard. If not, you should get out and look for better luck elsewhere.
6. Take the zig zag path:
Despite what many people think the path to success is rarely a straight line. Lucky men and women, on the whole, are not straight-line strugglers. They not only allow themselves to be distracted, they invite distraction.
A plan should be used as a guide only and if something better comes along the plan should be discarded immediately without regret.
7. Supernatural belief can help:
Not because it makes you more lucky but because it helps you make impossible choices. Sometimes there is no rational choice to make, yet the worst reaction is to do nothing.
A supernatural belief can enable people to get into a potentially winning position simply by helping them make choices.
8. Be a bit pessimistic:
Lucky people, as a breed, tend to be pessimistic. Optimism means expecting the best, but good luck involves knowing how you will handle the worst.
9. Learn to keep your mouth shut:
Talk can tie you up and lock you in positions that seem right today but may be wrong tomorrow. Avoid unnecessary talk about your problems, plans and feelings. When there is no good reason to say something, say nothing.
10. Recognise a non-lesson:
There are experiences in life that seem to be lessons but aren't. Recognise when something was just bad luck and move on.
11. Accept the universe is unfair:
All of us, the good, the bad and the in-between, are all equally likely to realise our fondest dreams or contract cancer.
12. Be willing to be busy:
The more activities you have going the greater the likelihood that something good will happen.
13. Find a destiny partner:
This is someone who is someone who changes your luck over a long term. This person is not necessarily a romantic partner and is usually just found by blind luck but it can help if you are actively looking. (ANI)
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Get rid of you rbelly fat now
Whether you have a major paunch or a tiny roundness and want to slim down, we have just the answers for you .
Looking for the simplest way to get rid of fat around your tummy? Go for this creative 20-minute fat-blasting workout and you’ll begin to see a toned tummy in just three weeks. Do them four times a week, with a day of rest in between.
Work out
Your legs are your scissors: Lie on your back with arms by your sides, legs raised, and toes pointing toward the sky. Flatten your lower back, engaging lower tummy muscles.
Inhale while lowering your right leg, so your toes are in line with your nose. Exhale, switching your legs scissor-like, so your right leg lifts back up and your left comes down. (Don’t touch the ground with your foot.) Do 3 sets of 8–10 reps.
Lie flat in front: Get on your knees and forearms with your elbows directly under your shoulders, fingers interlaced. Stretch your legs long, and come up on your toes into plank position. Exhale while twisting slightly to the left from your waist only. Inhale, returning to the starting position, then repeat on the opposite side. Do three sets of 10-12 reps.
A ball-game: Look up at the ceiling, lie down on a stability ball, and drape your abs and hips over it. Place your hands on the ground in front of you, and walk them out until the ball rolls beneath your shins; contract your lower abs and lift your hips slightly, then slowly lower them down. Do three sets of 10-12 reps.
Sleeping Buddha-pose: Lie on your left side with your legs straight and stacked on top of one another and your feet flexed. Rest your head on your straight left arm. Inhale while lifting both legs off the ground, then exhale while slowly lowering them until they’re about 1 inch off the ground. Do 10-12 reps, then switch sides and repeat to complete 1 set; do three sets.
Major paunch: Do 3 sets of 15 bicycle crunches 2-3 times a week, plus 30-45 minutes’ worth of run-walk intervals (2 minutes each) 4-5 times a week. You’ll notice the result in 4 weeks.
Tiny roundness: Do 3 sets of 12-15 crunches on a stability ball 2-3 times a week to sculpt your tummy in 3 weeks.
Eat this
Major paunch: Cut or burn 500 calories and drink 2 cups of green tea daily, as green tea alone helped exercisers drop ab fat in 12 weeks.
Tiny roundness: Eat snacks with belly-busting monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) daily: 23 almonds, 6 olives, or 2 squares dark chocolate. MUFAs can reduce ab fat in a month.
Fake it
Major paunch: Dress in a way that your belly fat is kept hidden. Go for lacy camisoles to pull in and shape your middle, plus give your chest a lift.
Tiny roundness: Get a belt that’s at least 3 inches wide and made of a stiff material or leather. A belt that won’t bend like a corset helps to hide your tummy.
Looking for the simplest way to get rid of fat around your tummy? Go for this creative 20-minute fat-blasting workout and you’ll begin to see a toned tummy in just three weeks. Do them four times a week, with a day of rest in between.
Work out
Your legs are your scissors: Lie on your back with arms by your sides, legs raised, and toes pointing toward the sky. Flatten your lower back, engaging lower tummy muscles.
Inhale while lowering your right leg, so your toes are in line with your nose. Exhale, switching your legs scissor-like, so your right leg lifts back up and your left comes down. (Don’t touch the ground with your foot.) Do 3 sets of 8–10 reps.
Lie flat in front: Get on your knees and forearms with your elbows directly under your shoulders, fingers interlaced. Stretch your legs long, and come up on your toes into plank position. Exhale while twisting slightly to the left from your waist only. Inhale, returning to the starting position, then repeat on the opposite side. Do three sets of 10-12 reps.
A ball-game: Look up at the ceiling, lie down on a stability ball, and drape your abs and hips over it. Place your hands on the ground in front of you, and walk them out until the ball rolls beneath your shins; contract your lower abs and lift your hips slightly, then slowly lower them down. Do three sets of 10-12 reps.
Sleeping Buddha-pose: Lie on your left side with your legs straight and stacked on top of one another and your feet flexed. Rest your head on your straight left arm. Inhale while lifting both legs off the ground, then exhale while slowly lowering them until they’re about 1 inch off the ground. Do 10-12 reps, then switch sides and repeat to complete 1 set; do three sets.
Major paunch: Do 3 sets of 15 bicycle crunches 2-3 times a week, plus 30-45 minutes’ worth of run-walk intervals (2 minutes each) 4-5 times a week. You’ll notice the result in 4 weeks.
Tiny roundness: Do 3 sets of 12-15 crunches on a stability ball 2-3 times a week to sculpt your tummy in 3 weeks.
Eat this
Major paunch: Cut or burn 500 calories and drink 2 cups of green tea daily, as green tea alone helped exercisers drop ab fat in 12 weeks.
Tiny roundness: Eat snacks with belly-busting monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) daily: 23 almonds, 6 olives, or 2 squares dark chocolate. MUFAs can reduce ab fat in a month.
Fake it
Major paunch: Dress in a way that your belly fat is kept hidden. Go for lacy camisoles to pull in and shape your middle, plus give your chest a lift.
Tiny roundness: Get a belt that’s at least 3 inches wide and made of a stiff material or leather. A belt that won’t bend like a corset helps to hide your tummy.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Why Gold and Silver Seem Stuck
Why Gold and Silver Seem Stuck
I have contended that the Obama Administration has printed so much money that it will cause serious price inflation. So why is gold stalled around $1,200 and silver around $17 and we are seeing actual price deflation?
Let me restate some economic principles:
Inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. Monetary inflation is the real threat caused by creating money out of nothing. Price inflation is not real “inflation” but merely the
natural consequence of monetary inflation and tends to follow with a time lag.
Gold and silver are performing their usual predictive function in anticipation of future price inflation. They have risen steadily for several years.
From a price-inflation perspective, we are in a deflationary period. From a monetary inflation point of view, the government is still printing money and monetary inflation will continue. It will not be reflected in price inflation until the money gets into circulation.
The Velocity of Money
The banks where the money has been deposited will have to start lending the money to get it into circulation. The government produced the money and gave it to the banks, and the banks must loan it into circulation.
Because of all the uncertainties created by the Obama Administration about the future of taxes and the economy, banks are afraid to loan money for fear of losing it. Businessmen are logically afraid to borrow because they don’t know what the future looks like, so they won’t invest and expand their businesses, keeping the economy in the doldrums.
Until the banks realize they can’t make much money if they don’t loan the money they are sitting on and just deposit it in interest-bearing accounts yielding under two percent at the Federal Reserve, the money won’t get into circulation and cause price inflation.
Always distinguish monetary inflation from price inflation. Monetary inflation is caused by creating more currency; price inflation is caused by the velocity of money or currency getting into circulation.
Despite the fact that we are in a price-deflationary period, gold and silver are holding up under forces that theoretically should be bearish for the metals, but it isn’t bearish for the metals because the markets are looking ahead to the inevitable future price inflation When price inflation shows up, they will take off.
Also, Socialism always causes inflation. The Soviet Union tried to control price inflation with price controls, which inevitably created horrendous shortages with people standing in line if a rumor spread that a store had something to sell. Even if they didn’t know what it was and didn’t want it, they knew they could barter it or sell it for rubles which they could spend to support their families.
We will see the same thing. When price inflation breaks out, government will eventually try to control price increases, which will create inevitable shortages. I don’t know when it will happen, as the timing is beyond my pay grade. It is inevitable. We simply need to wait it out and use the current pause in the markets to load up on gold and silver to protect our assets from the coming price inflation.
Two Functions
The metals serve two basic functions. One is insurance. When you own coins and bullion, you are insuring against the potential loss of the purchasing power of the dollar. Money is supposed to be a medium of exchange and a store of value. The dollar is still an important medium of exchange, but many years ago ceased to be a store of value.
You need to own some actual bullion or bullion-type coins for insurance. Not for profit, but for insurance. It will be profitable, but that’s not your primary objective. If you want to make big money with gold and silver, the best way is gold and silver in the ground.
I have contended that the Obama Administration has printed so much money that it will cause serious price inflation. So why is gold stalled around $1,200 and silver around $17 and we are seeing actual price deflation?
Let me restate some economic principles:
Inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. Monetary inflation is the real threat caused by creating money out of nothing. Price inflation is not real “inflation” but merely the
natural consequence of monetary inflation and tends to follow with a time lag.
Gold and silver are performing their usual predictive function in anticipation of future price inflation. They have risen steadily for several years.
From a price-inflation perspective, we are in a deflationary period. From a monetary inflation point of view, the government is still printing money and monetary inflation will continue. It will not be reflected in price inflation until the money gets into circulation.
The Velocity of Money
The banks where the money has been deposited will have to start lending the money to get it into circulation. The government produced the money and gave it to the banks, and the banks must loan it into circulation.
Because of all the uncertainties created by the Obama Administration about the future of taxes and the economy, banks are afraid to loan money for fear of losing it. Businessmen are logically afraid to borrow because they don’t know what the future looks like, so they won’t invest and expand their businesses, keeping the economy in the doldrums.
Until the banks realize they can’t make much money if they don’t loan the money they are sitting on and just deposit it in interest-bearing accounts yielding under two percent at the Federal Reserve, the money won’t get into circulation and cause price inflation.
Always distinguish monetary inflation from price inflation. Monetary inflation is caused by creating more currency; price inflation is caused by the velocity of money or currency getting into circulation.
Despite the fact that we are in a price-deflationary period, gold and silver are holding up under forces that theoretically should be bearish for the metals, but it isn’t bearish for the metals because the markets are looking ahead to the inevitable future price inflation When price inflation shows up, they will take off.
Also, Socialism always causes inflation. The Soviet Union tried to control price inflation with price controls, which inevitably created horrendous shortages with people standing in line if a rumor spread that a store had something to sell. Even if they didn’t know what it was and didn’t want it, they knew they could barter it or sell it for rubles which they could spend to support their families.
We will see the same thing. When price inflation breaks out, government will eventually try to control price increases, which will create inevitable shortages. I don’t know when it will happen, as the timing is beyond my pay grade. It is inevitable. We simply need to wait it out and use the current pause in the markets to load up on gold and silver to protect our assets from the coming price inflation.
Two Functions
The metals serve two basic functions. One is insurance. When you own coins and bullion, you are insuring against the potential loss of the purchasing power of the dollar. Money is supposed to be a medium of exchange and a store of value. The dollar is still an important medium of exchange, but many years ago ceased to be a store of value.
You need to own some actual bullion or bullion-type coins for insurance. Not for profit, but for insurance. It will be profitable, but that’s not your primary objective. If you want to make big money with gold and silver, the best way is gold and silver in the ground.
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