Sunday, November 15, 2009

Welcome to the age of excess

We live in the Age of Excess and no one knows this better than the Americans. The Recession may have hurt them and toned down their extravagance a bit, but they are still a nation that consumes more and lives a richer, more flamboyant lifestyle than any other nation in the world. As any environmentalist or social scientist will tell you disapprovingly, the world simply can’t afford another America. It will simply collapse.

But even though no one can quite match America’s excess, the world aspires to it. They see it as Development, Growth, Progress. That’s why every nation, including us and our neighbours, the Chinese, frugal by history and instinct, now want to become modern by emulating the Great American Dream. You see it in all that we do these days. We are raising 100 storey towers kissing the skies even though we know how unreliable our builders are in terms of the right building material and technology to ensure their safety and security. We wouldn’t even know how to rescue people on the higher floors if a fire broke out or an earthquake. In fact, wherever you look, new vertical townships are coming up without adequate infrastructure like electricity, roads, water, public transport to support them. The idea is simply to build, build, build. In the hope people and prosperity will grow at a fast enough pace to buy into them. That’s why we measure our success and well being in terms of GDP growth without worrying about the price we pay for it.

Look at simple things and you will know exactly what I mean. The humble pizza has grown more fanciful with newer and newer toppings. The even humbler dosa, once the vegetarian’s favourite, is now sporting an incredible number of variants, from meat to oysters and snails. The poor man’s rolls are becoming bigger, fatter, more bizarre in their fillings. Nothing’s what it once was. It’s not just food. Look at the interiors of homes, offices. Look at the amount of marble and granite we use when we do our interiors. If you recall, Poonam Chambers in Worli came crashing down under the dead weight of the stuff its occupants used.

Have you seen how Indian weddings have grown in recent times? Have you noticed how much people have begun to spend on them, even in the smaller towns of India? Bollywood movies flaunt their budgets. Fashion designers show off their price tags. Malls, till recently, were parading luxury retail brands till the economic slowdown forced many of them to downsize or shut down. Even magazines have become fatter than they ever were. Computers and cell phones are offering so much memory and so many more features that you can spend a decade learning how to use all of them. Even the amazing iPod, once considered a marvel of simplicity, is fighting competition by being many things to many more people. Just as software variants are becoming so complex that every new version offers more glitches than conveniences.

Airports are increasingly looking like townships, offering everything from hotel rooms to spas to movie theatres to hundreds of dining options. Movie theatres offer you anything from dinner to a bed with warm blankets. Offices are no longer just workplaces. They have gyms, pool tables, basketball courts, libraries, auditoriums to watch movies, crèches for working mothers. Even mutual funds have become so many and so complex that they obfuscate buyers. Choice is the argument proffered for excess. But does excess really help you make a better choice or does it make it tougher, so much tougher that we have to hire middlemen for assistance? How many of us can file our income tax returns on our own or see our assessment through? How many can any more take a simple OTC drug and hope to cure a flu attack? How many can decide which life insurance plan to buy?

What’s the result? Even our most basic needs are getting more complex. Our expectations are rising and we are killing ourselves to meet these expectations. Pavements are disappearing because roads are widening, flyovers are multiplying. Pedestrians don’t matter any more. Even those who once cycled to work are now buying cars and killing themselves to afford petrol and maintenance. Everyone’s learning to multi-task and simple jobs have simply vanished because running companies is no longer what it once was. Even owning a bank account is no longer what it was. You spend more time trying to protect your savings from eroding or disappearing than managing costs.

Excess is taking over our lives. Look at the kids on TV. Look at models on the ramps. Look at clothes on the racks, fine dining menu cards, bathroom accessories, jewellery shop displays. Bookshops no longer sell just books. Cake shops no longer just sell cakes. Music shops no longer sell music. Just as life is no longer only about living and marriage is no longer just about love. That would sound terribly boring, wouldn’t it in today’s larger than life world?

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Noticed and Known

Two important human needs that don’t change over time are the need to be noticed and to be known.
While there are those who might hide these needs for any number of reasons, leaders need to remember the importance of both.
Kids in a classroom that can’t be noticed for good grades or behavior often resort to bad behavior. Why? Being noticed for being bad is preferable to being ignored.
The famous Hawthorne Effect experiment proved that workers on an assembly line improved their performance when they perceived management was paying attention to them. The changes in working conditions were superfluous, but the resulting perception was “They’re finally paying attention to us!”
Noticing employees and colleagues begins with simple courtesy and acknowledgement. It is more powerful to pay attention to the contributions and good work they do. Too often we notice only the negative or problematic behavior which inadvertently can reinforce that behavior. (Remember the classroom example above?)
Getting to know someone takes much more time and effort. Obviously no manager or leader wants to be obtrusive. The appropriate approach is making the time to understand an employee’s hopes, fears and goals at work. The objective should never be gratuitous; it should be motivated by the value you place on the person and a genuine need to help them be all they can be at work.
Bob Seger wrote a song about being an autoworker in Detroit many years ago. The refrain? “I feel like a number.” Underlying that sentiment is feeling neither noticed nor known.
Being noticed and know are simple but critically important needs. Regrettably they are often overlooked.

Thoughts are things

if you don’t want something bad to happen, or if you want good things for yourself in your life, be careful about what you think, for you will become what you think as sure as the dawn follows night. Always remember, thoughts are things.’ Wow, the entire world wrapped up in those three magic words: Thoughts are things! A thought is the most powerful force in the universe. You can make of your life whatever you wish if you learn to make your thoughts work for you,

Day Trading Methodology

I have been reading the latest book from Van Tharp, Super Trader and I want to highlight this passage about daytrading methodologies:

"For example, if you are a daytrader, open up a position and either take a small loss or get out at the end of the day. When you do that, you are not tied to the market all day, and you may find that you take small losses and get huge profits. Simplify your entry technique and concentrate on exits"

Now, lets cross this with Jesse Livermore remarks on the speculative line of least resistance:

"It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it."

So, we have a powerful daytrading methodology in these two market generalizations. But JL added, "But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself - that is, against human nature."

Rings a bell? Maybe we should all print this post and have it by the trading desk.

Do we need to hear 1.000 opinions about our health?

I know a man who has seen a thousand doctors. Let us call him Thomas. He is 80 years old but even so, a thousand is a huge number. In a year, he would have seen 12 new doctors on the average. A thousand different doctors means perhaps 20,000 consultations. Sometimes Thomas sees three different doctors in one afternoon.

Some of Thomas’s friends are doctors. Some of his doctors become his friends. His doctors range from the junior to the senior, from those in government hospitals to those in private practice, from generalists to specialists. Men, women, foreigners, graduates from local universities; he has seen them all. Sometimes he sees them just to measure his blood pressure.

Sometimes it is for a more serious matter like an unexplained chest pain. He has spent about $230,000 in his lifetime on doctor visits, blood tests, medications, X-rays, scans and 
minor surgeries.

He has no regrets. Others may splurge on flashy cars or the services of a sommelier, but for Thomas it is doctors, doctors and more doctors. Sadly, Thomas was diagnosed with lung cancer recently and was referred to me. I wonder how many more oncologists he has seen or will be seeing.

Thomas came across as a well adjusted gentleman. He did not exhibit any verbal or physical tic. He spoke well. He gave his medical history clearly and answered most of my questions willingly and appropriately. Having gained his trust, I decided to explore his need to see so many doctors. He was forthright about it. He is afraid to die.

So many of us, with or without cancer, are not willing to admit to our fear of death. We couch our fear like this: “Doctor, I am not afraid to die but I fear the process of dying.” Others of a more poetic bent will say, “Oh, death, where is thy sting?” It is a badge of honor we proudly wear on our sleeves.

Thomas was afraid of death, and he was not afraid to admit it. That’s courage. He was going to do his best to postpone it. Of course, seeing a thousand doctors does not help. It may even be harmful. Conflicting opinions lead to confusion and anxiety. Excessive and unnecessary X-rays and CT scans increase the chance of radiation-
induced cancer.

Apart from his fear of death, Thomas also disclosed a distrust of doctors. He was seeking as many opinions as possible before deciding on treatment. He had his doubts. Now you know why I gave Thomas his moniker.

Is Thomas suffering from hypochondriasis? The condition is characterised by fears that minor bodily symptoms may indicate a serious illness. The hypochondriac constantly examines himself; self-diagnosis becomes a preoccupation. He expresses doubt and disbelief in the doctor’s diagnosis. Thomas has some traits of a hypochondriac but that is too easy a label to stick on him. Thomas had a CT scan of his chest two years ago that disclosed a shadow in his lung. He was treated for pneumonia. The possibility of cancer was excluded when most of the shadow disappeared with a course of antibiotics. The doctors should have gone the extra mile to exclude cancer with a PET/CT scan and a biopsy.

Some may diagnose Thomas with thanatophobia — an undue obsession with death (especially one’s own) to the extent that it becomes psychologically crippling. Again, this would be too convenient a label. Thomas is a successful entrepreneur and is socially adept.

I really don’t know. We tend to medicalise every little symptom and discomfort. From an infant’s excessive crying to teenage angst to a wage earner’s blues. There is a pill for everything: insomnia, erectile dysfunction and the sadness of bereavement. Perhaps Thomas has the time and money to see many doctors and he feels good doing this. It is therapeutic for him, if you can forgive my use of the word. It may be no different from some others I know who spend as much as Thomas does on audiovisual systems or eating unmentionable parts of endangered animals.

I shall help Thomas fight his cancer. I will dissuade him from unnecessary blood tests and scans. I will not judge him. Most of all, I will not medicalize his fear of death. It is about being human. There is no pill for it.

Friday, November 13, 2009

JP Morgan CEO reply to a chick who wanted to 'marry a rich guy'

Friday, July 3 2009
JP Morgan CEO reply to a chick who wanted to 'marry a rich guy'. WIN!

Title: What should I do to marry a rich guy?

I’m going to be honest of what I’m going to say here. I’m 25 this year. I’m very pretty, have style and good taste. I wish to marry a guy with $500k annual salary or above. You might say that I’m greedy, but an annual salary of $1M is considered only as middle class in New York. My requirement is not high. Is there anyone in this forum who has an income of $500k annual salary? Are you all married? I wanted to ask: what should I do to marry rich persons like you? Among those I’ve dated, the richest is $250k annual income, and it seems that this is my upper limit. If someone is going to move into high cost residential area on the west of New York CityGarden(?), $250k annual income is not enough.

I’m here humbly to ask a few questions:

1) Where do most rich bachelors hang out? (Please list down the names and addresses of bars, restaurant, gym)

2) Which age group should I target?

3) Why most wives of the riches is only average-looking? I’ve met a few girls who doesn’t have looks and are not interesting, but they are able to marry rich guys

4) How do you decide who can be your wife, and who can only be your girlfriend? (my target now is to get married)

Ms. Pretty

Awesome reply:

Dear Ms. Pretty,

I have read your post with great interest. Guess there are lots of girls out there who have similar questions like yours. Please allow me to analyse your situation as a professional investor. My annual income is more than $500k, which meets your requirement, so I hope everyone believes that I’m not wasting time here. From the standpoint of a business person, it is a bad decision to marry you.. The answer is very simple, so let me explain.

Put the details aside, what you’re trying to do is an exchange of ‘beauty’ and ‘money’: Person A provides beauty, and Person B pays for it, fair and square. However, there’s a deadly problem here, your beauty will fade, but my money will not be gone without any good reason. The fact is, my income might increase from year to year, but you can’t be prettier year after year. Hence from the viewpoint of economics, I am an appreciation asset, and you are a depreciation asset. It’s not just normal depreciation, but exponential depreciation. If that is your only asset, your value will be much worried 10 years later.

By the terms we use in Wall Street, every trading has a position, dating with you is also a ‘trading position’. If the trade value dropped we will sell it and it is not a good idea to keep it for long term - same goes with the marriage that you wanted. It might be cruel to say this, but in order to make a wiser decision any assets with great depreciation value will be sold or ‘leased’. Anyone with over $500k annual income is not a fool; we would only date you, but will not marry you. I would advice that you forget looking for any clues to marry a rich guy. And by the way, you could make yourself to become a rich person with $500k annual income. This has better chance than finding a rich fool.

Hope this reply helps. If you are interested in ‘leasing’ services, do contact me…

signed,
CEO
J.P. Morgan :)